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| Durkee Huntington Fire |
The following is a ranked disaster scenario for the Ontario Stake area by likelihood generated from multiple sources including the Oregon Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan, FEMA, and Augurisk with an estimated risk/vulnerability to comms by event.
Heatwave / Smoke Events
Severity: Moderate
Likelihood: Very high (annual now).
Why: Extended 100°F+ temps + wildfire smoke → health crises, strain on hospitals, crop stress.
Impact: Elevated mortality among elderly/fragile populations, lower agricultural yields.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Very low (2/10)
Cell towers: Moderate (5/10) – overheating equipment, power stress.
Internet: Moderate (4/10) – higher load, cooling issues.
Broadcast: Low (3/10) – mild disruptions.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 3.5/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: same day (0–6 hours) after cooling/power stabilization; longest: 1–3 days in localized hotspots. (Assumes no major hardware damage.)
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Wildfire (High desert, rangeland, wildland-urban interface)
Severity: High
Likelihood: High
Why: Hot, dry summers with high winds → grass and rangeland fires spread fast. If it sweeps into the agricultural valley or outskirts, could threaten towns.
Impact: Loss of homes on the fringe, smoke inhalation, livestock death, economic damage.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Moderate (6/10) – poles burned.
Cell towers: High (8/10) – towers burn, backup power fails.
Internet: High (7/10) – fiber/cable melts in fire zone.
Broadcast: Moderate (6/10) – local relay towers threatened.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 6.8/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: 6–24 hours where only power/air quality are issues; longest: 1–8 weeks if towers/backhaul or fiber need rebuild. (Access & supply-chain dependent.)
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Severe Drought / Water Shortage
Severity: Significant
Likelihood: High (cyclical, trending worse).
Why: Region relies on irrigation from Owyhee and Snake River. Extended drought + climate change → crop failures, livestock stress, economic collapse.
Impact: Agricultural base devastated, ripple effects in local economy.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Very low (2/10)
Cell towers: Very low (2/10)
Internet: Very low (2/10)
Broadcast: Very low (2/10)
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 2.0/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: no outage; longest: 0–24 hours for isolated power/rationing impacts. (Primarily indirect effects.)
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Extreme Winter Storm / Blizzard
Severity: Moderate to high
Likelihood: Moderate to high
Why: Snow and ice storms can paralyze I-84, isolate rural residents, freeze irrigation infrastructure, and knock out power.
Impact: Prolonged outages, stranded travelers, livestock losses, but generally recoverable.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Moderate (5/10) – ice breaks poles/lines.
Cell towers: High (7/10) – tower icing, backup generators run dry.
Internet: High (6/10) – DSL/cable knocked out by power loss.
Broadcast: Moderate (5/10) – local transmitter interruptions.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 5.8/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: 4–12 hours after power restoration; longest: 1–3 weeks in rural/icing areas with line and site repairs. (Road access is the driver.)
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Hazardous Materials Incident (Highway/Rail Corridor)
Severity: High
Likelihood: Moderate
Why: I-84, US-20/26, and Union Pacific Railroad haul fuel, chemicals, fertilizers. A tanker derailment or highway pile-up could release toxins or cause explosions.
Impact: Town evacuation, water contamination, major casualties if near dense areas.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Low (3/10) – localized only.
Cell towers: Low to moderate (4/10) – small-area shutdowns.
Internet: Low to moderate (4/10) – brief fiber shutdown if along right-of-way.
Broadcast: Low (3/10) – minor local effects.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 3.5/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: 2–6 hours once the exclusion zone lifts; longest: 2–7 days if fiber in ROW is cut and needs splicing. (Dependent on hazmat clearance.)
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Public Health Crisis (Pandemic, Contaminated Water)
Severity: Variable
Likelihood: Moderate
Why: COVID showed fragility of rural healthcare. Contamination of irrigation or municipal water (Snake/Owyhee sources) could trigger outbreaks.
Impact: Depends on pathogen/toxin; severe socially, less visually destructive than natural hazards.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Very low (2/10) – system intact.
Cell towers: Low (3/10) – staffing shortages.
Internet: Low (3/10) – network load spikes but not physical damage.
Broadcast: Very low (2/10) – stations understaffed.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 2.5/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: no outage (continuous operation); longest: 1–7 days of intermittent staffing/maintenance impacts, with performance normalization over 2–8 weeks. (Capacity, not damage.)
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Landslides / Rockfalls (Canyons & Slopes)
Severity: Localized
Likelihood: Low to moderate
Why: Steep Snake River Canyon walls & Owyhee backcountry are prone to slides after heavy rain or quakes.
Impact: Road closures, property loss, geographically limited.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Moderate (4/10) – cut buried cables.
Cell towers: Moderate (5/10) – isolated if access lost.
Internet: High (6/10) – fiber in canyons buried/destroyed.
Broadcast: Low (3/10) – only if tower near slope.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 4.5/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: 8–24 hours via reroute/splice if accessible; longest: 2–6 weeks where slope stabilization and access restoration are required.
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Major Earthquake (Cascadia Subduction Zone or local faults)
Severity: Catastrophic
Likelihood: Low (but not negligible).
Why: Though Ontario sits inland, a major Cascadia event (M9+) or local Snake River Plain fault could cause severe shaking, collapsing bridges, damaging I-84, waterlines, and buildings. Widespread loss of services.
Historical Context: The 1700 Cascadia quake devastated the PNW coast. Inland shaking can still cripple utilities and trigger landslides.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Severe damage (9/10) – poles snap, central offices collapse.
Cell towers: Severe (9/10) – tower collapse, power loss, backhaul failures.
Internet: Severe (9/10) – fiber breaks, data centers damaged.
Broadcast: High (8/10) – tower failures, reduced emergency alert reach.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 8.8/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: 2–7 days for partial service (text/voice) in pockets; longest: 3–6 months for broad restoration of towers, backhaul, and broadcast sites. (Bridges, fuels, and crews are gating factors.)
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Snake River Flooding / Dam Failure (Owyhee, Brownlee, Hells Canyon, etc.)
Severity: Extreme
Likelihood: Very low
Why: A failure at Owyhee Dam (or upstream Brownlee/Hells Canyon) would flood the valley, inundating homes, farmland, and parts of Ontario/Weiser.
Impact: Massive property loss, possible fatalities, displacement of thousands. Agriculture crippled.
Historical Note: 1950s Owyhee flood control work shows awareness of this risk.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Very high (8/10) – poles washed out.
Cell towers: Very high (8/10) – tower sites in lowlands disabled.
Internet: Very high (8/10) – buried fiber and roadside conduits flooded.
Broadcast: High (7/10) – transmitter sites near valleys affected.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 7.8/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: 3–10 days where power can be restored and sites dried; longest: 1–3 months where foundations, roads, and backhaul must be rebuilt.
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Localized Tornado or Microburst
Severity: Low to Moderate
Likelihood: Very low
Why: Rare, but possible. Would cause localized damage, unlikely widespread.
Impact to Communications:
Landlines: Moderate (5/10) – poles toppled locally.
Cell towers: Moderate (6/10) – one or two towers damaged.
Internet: Moderate (5/10) – fiber/poles lost in small zone.
Broadcast: Moderate (5/10) – localized transmitter loss.
Overall Comms Vulnerability: 5.3/10
Expected communications recovery timeframe — shortest: 6–24 hours for localized repairs; longest: 7–14 days if a tower/backhaul segment needs replacement. (Small footprint, but parts/crews can delay.
Some notable events in the past years, while not all directly impact communications (Huntington lost communications in their fire) they do show that there are a number of things that happen fairly frequently in the area to consider and prepare for:
1. Malheur River Flood – February 2025
In late February 2025, the Malheur River flooded, inundating parts of Ontario and Vale. Floodwaters surged rapidly, sweeping property and displacing livestock. Communities were left confronting extensive flood damage as waters receded by around February 27.
2. Durkee Fire – Summer 2024
The Durkee Fire ignited via lightning on July 17, 2024 in Baker County and spread into Malheur County, in eastern Oregon. Spanning approximately 294,265 acres, it became the largest wildfire in Oregon's 2024 season and one of the largest in U.S. 2024 wildfires.
This megafire prompted evacuation of Huntington (~500 residents), triggered I‑84 interstate closures between Pendleton and Ontario, caused gas service disruptions, and left about 7,000 Idaho Power customers without electricity.
3. Wildfires in 2020 and 2021 (Statewide, Including Eastern Oregon Territories)
While not Ontario‑specific, several massive wildfires burned across eastern Oregon during these years—some directly affecting Malheur County or proximate areas. Notable incidents include:
2020 Oregon Wildfires: Over 1.2 million acres burned statewide; fires like the Indian Creek Fire (Malheur County) consumed ~48,128 acres.
2021 Oregon Wildfires: Approximately 827,596 acres were scorched across the state, including incidents in eastern regions.
4. Earthquake Frequency (Minor)
Ontario, OR sees an average of around 47 minor earthquakes per year. However, these are typically low magnitude and historically not disaster‑level events.
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